Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Research Articles

The Stalemate Over the Negotiation Process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

The paper examines the challenges that encounter the negotiation process over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The project would make a huge contribution to Ethiopia’s economic development and energy demand, though Egypt and Sudan are concerned and seek a binding agreement on the dam’s filling and operation. The dam has become a source of contention between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. To de-escalate the intensity and reach a final and comprehensive deal, the three countries have negotiated multiple times, though it usually ends in disagreement. Position, colonial era agreements, securitizing, and internationalizing the GERD have been obstructing the negotiation. The article suggests that since distributive negotiation neither benefits Ethiopia nor Egypt and Sudan, the talks should be concluded with integrative ends. The parties should also have political will and commitment to make the GERD a plat form for cooperation rather than conflict. Received: 13 March 2024 / Accepted: 30 April 2024 / Published: 5 May 2024

Surface water and geomorphological changes of the Blue Nile dynamics associated with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): a multi-temporal analysis

ABSTRACT The Blue Nile River is an indispensable source of livelihood for over 90 million people in Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. Recently, Ethiopia has constructed the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), the largest in Africa, which could potentially alter the geomorphology of the river regime, and impact downstream countries. This study offers the first comprehensive analysis of the geomorphological alterations and water surface coverage changes of the Blue Nile River due to the construction and operation of the GERD. For this, we use multi-temporal Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery spanning the period from 2009 to 2022, supplemented with Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) precipitation products to discern the potential influence of climate variability on the observed changes. The findings are examined using the Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) model, revealing significant fluctuations in the water surface coverage area across different sections of the river, particularly following the filling stages of the GERD. An analysis at every 10 km is performed to assess the extent of GERD’s influence on the Blue Nile, which indicates no notable alterations in surface area or geomorphology within the first 30 km of downstream river flow. The study also determines that changes from 2011 to 2018 are primarily associated with the upgrade activities of the Roseires Dam, while alterations along the Blue Nile from 2018 to 2019 are linked to climate variability. The observed changes between 2020 and 2022 can largely be attributed to the filling stages of the GERD. Notably, these changes are most pronounced in the water retaining areas upstream of the GERD dam. The results also show that Roseires Dam could play a crucial role as a buffer, mitigating potential impacts imposed by the GERD, and serving as a conduit between the GERD and downstream communities.

Impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Nile River’s downstream reservoirs

The Nile River Basin’s (NRB’s) water resources are vulnerable to hydrologic alteration projects. Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a hydroelectric power project on the Blue Nile, is expected to improve living standards in Ethiopia and contribute to the country's sustainable development. However, the effects of the GERD on water resources of downstream countries (Sudan and Egypt) have been a source of concern. In this study, eight types of remote sensing data and products were used to assess the impacts of the GERD reservoir’s filling process on Ethiopia’s, Sudan’s, and Egypt’s surface water resources. Specifically, spatiotemporal variability in surface area, volume, rainfall, and water storage for five reservoirs located in Ethiopia (GERD), Sudan (Roseires and Merowe), and Egypt (Lake Nasser and Toshka) for the period 2013–2022 were examined. Results indicate that (1) the GERD reservoir’s three filling phases started in July 2020, July 2021, and August 2022, respectively, (2) at the onset of these three phases, the GERD reservoir covered an area (volume) of 110 ± 7 km2 (1.87 ± 0.07 km3), 233 ± 31 km2 (4.30 ± 0.48 km3), and 544 ± 126 km2 (11.79 ± 2.18 km3), respectively, (3) a reduction in the GERD reservoir’s area (24–49 %) observed at the end of the first two fillings is attributed to enhanced infiltration and evaporation rates at the GERD site, (4) no significant changes were observed in the Roseires and Merowe reservoir’s surface areas, although both Nasser and Toshka reservoirs saw a slight increase in surface area during the investigated period, (5) the observed increase in water storage over the five reservoirs is attributed mainly to increased rainfall rates (6–10 %) and heavy flooding during the GERD filling period, and (6) if the GERD filling continues at the similar rates for an additional four years during drought periods, Egypt's Nile water allocation might be reduced by 35.47 ± 2.29 % (16.57 ± 1.07 km3), which could translate into an agricultural land loss of 33.14 ± 1.81 % each year. This study emphasizes the critical need for Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt to work together to effectively and equitably manage the water resources of the NRB.

Numerical assessment of the risk of GERD break on the downstream countries

The potential effects of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) failure on the downstream countries were numerically assessed. Flow discharge reaching Lake Nasser and the corresponding water levels were determined, and the inundated areas were defined as a result of GERD failure. High-resolution digital elevation model was developed with 2670-km length starting from GERD till Aswan High Dam. GERD’s reservoir, urban, and rural lands downstream of the GERD were presented using a numerical model. The modeled areas included parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, not to mention Toshka Spillway. The model areas were not divided into parts because of calculating the water levels at the existence of intermediate dams as model outputs. In case possible failure of GERD, Roseires and Sennar dams could collapse. Meanwhile, Merowe dam can sustain with the operation of its emergency spillway. Wave height reaches 100-m downstream of the GERD and 64-m and 31-m downstream of the Roseires and Merowe dams, respectively.

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam dispute: implications, negotiations, and mediations

ABSTRACT The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has created disputes between the Nile River's lower and upper riparian zones in North Africa. Ethiopia sees the GERD as a project to prosper, while Egypt considers that it will imperil the country’s economy. After the African Union (AU) failed to resolve the disputes over GERD, the matter reached to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) which, after discussions, stated that the matter should be resolved at the regional level. This paper examines the theoretical and conceptual aspects of transboundary river waters and why riparian states shy away from cooperative arrangements. The paper then discusses the history of water disputes in the Nile Basin region and analyses the history of water distribution and projects in North and eastern Africa. Finally, the paper analyses the role of other countries, the AU, and the UNSC in disputes over the GERD project.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Geopolitical Implications

This study examined the geopolitical implications of the GERD project in light of the ‗framework of benefit-sharing‘. The study adopted a qualitative research approach in which data were gathered from multiple sources, such as key informant interviews, books, journal articles, policy briefs, commentary, and opinions; and documents such as declarations, agreements, letters, and statements, water policies, government communications, reports, and media sources. In light of this, the paper argues that GERD foreshadows a new emergent order based on principles of benefit-sharing capable of replacing the existing inequitable water-sharing regime. The GERD has the potential to create cooperation between the riparian countries because of its proven benefits to the region. The potential cost of non-cooperation may also push Egypt towards opting for cooperation. Furthermore, the GERD could shift the power dynamics by positioning Ethiopia as a regional anchor state, which could further enhance prospects for cooperation. The study also highlights that the conflict over the GERD extends beyond the physicality of the dam and is deeply rooted in the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt. Egypt perceives the GERD as an existential threat to its existing water-sharing regime while Ethiopia regards it as a benefit-sharing project and an existential necessity. However, the study highlights the possibility that the GERD may transform the geopolitical rivalry between Ethiopia and Egypt from a water-based conflict into a power trade competition, implying that cooperation and conflict, competition and cooperation, may coexist in this complex geopolitical landscape. The study implies that understanding the geopolitical implications of the GERD is crucial for navigating the complexities of the issue and finding sustainable solutions. Keywords: Geopolitics, GERD, Benefit-sharing, Water-sharing, Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile

Comparative sentiment analysis of grand renaissance dam controversy in Egyptian and Ethiopian newspapers

Through a 3-year period of content analysis, this study compares predominant sentiments, stakeholder portrayal, framing techniques, and prevailing tone in Egyptian ‘Ahram Online’ and ‘The Reporter’ Ethiopian newspaper coverage of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) controversy. Despite the relatively extended, ongoing nature of GERD negotiations, throughout the last 3 years, 2020 – 2023, representing the time frame of the current study, the news coverage of both the Ethiopian and Egyptian media has portrayed the sentimental pillars of controversy in a contemporary manner.The results revealed that Ahram Online, the Egyptian newspaper, predominantly conveys a positive sentiment, echoing Egypt's focus on diplomacy and negotiation to resolve the Grand Renaissance Dam dispute, fostering an optimistic and cooperative tone. Conversely, 'The Reporter,' an Ethiopian newspaper, exhibits varying sentiments over time, with positive portrayals of Ethiopia's perspective on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and negative sentiments concerning external actors and evolving Egypt-Ethiopia tensions.Ahram Online portrays Egypt as advocating for its water rights and comprehensive agreements, emphasizing diplomacy and casting Egypt positively. 'The Reporter' presents Ethiopia as dedicated to its development, emphasizing the GERD's importance while critically covering external stakeholders.Both newspapers employ framing techniques. Ahram Online emphasizes cooperation, regional stability, and responsible water use, framing the GERD issue positively. 'The Reporter' highlights Ethiopia's historical challenges and the urgency of the GERD project while critically framing external actors.Al-Ahram's tone remains optimistic and cooperative, emphasizing diplomatic solutions. 'The Reporter' exhibits varying tones, including optimism, urgency, skepticism, and negativity, reflecting Ethiopia's perspective and concerns about external actors and evolving tensions.

The Dispute Over The Nile River Involving The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

This study examines the complex conflict over the Nile River, focusing on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and its implications for regional socio-economic development. The research adopts a systems perspective to analyze the dynamics between Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. It highlights the challenges of water management in the Nile River Basin, shared by eleven African countries, and delves into the geopolitical, environmental, and socio-economic factors at play. The research team, composed of Latin American scholars, acknowledges their outsider perspective and strives to incorporate a wide range of views. The findings discuss the historical treaties, current negotiations, and the importance of a balanced agreement that considers the interests of all parties, the threat of climate change, and sustainable water management practices. The study concludes with insights that could inform similar disputes in other transboundary river basins and underscores the urgency for cooperative solutions to prevent humanitarian crises. Keywords: Nile River, GERD, Causal Loops, System Perspective

Popular culture and Nile hydropolitics: Amharic songs about the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Water conflicts and negotiations between riparian states in the Nile Basin have mostly focused on legal, political, technical, and hydrological aspects of the river and dam construction. The contemporary cultural, emotional, and symbolic dimensions of the river and its dams have been largely overlooked. Therefore, this article explores how the Nile is portrayed, embedded, and perceived in Ethiopian popular culture, particularly popular songs. The Abbay, as the Nile is called in Ethiopia, is an integral part of the country’s identity, culture, history and politics. The river is at the heart of Ethiopian public space and popular songs, which both influence and are shaped by public opinion and official government discourses. The narratives communi- cated through these popular songs dramatically changed after construction began for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile in 2011. While most songs had previously lamented and cursed the river’s indifference to Ethiopians’ strife, newer narratives glorify and celebrate the river and the GERD. This study used discourse analysis to illustrate how popular songs shape public opinion about Abbay and mobilize popular support for the construction of the GERD. The article concludes with broader implications for water diplomacy and ongoing GERD negotiations.

Hazards of sea level rise and dams built on the River Nile on water budget and salinity of the Nile Delta aquifer

Study regionThe Nile Delta region consists of flat, low-lying areas, where most areas are used for agriculture. It covers an area of 22,000 km2, which is 2.20% of the total area of Egypt. Study focusThis study evaluates the water budget and the salinity due to the Sea Level Rise (SLR) and the reduction in the river water flow caused by the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) using the numerical code SEAWAT. Three filling scenarios were considered for the GERD reservoir at elevations 600 m, 621 m, and 645 m above mean sea level (AMSL) for the storage volumes of 17 billion cubic meters (BCM) (scenarios #1), 37.30 BCM (scenarios #2), and 74 BCM (scenarios #3). The impact of these fillings scenarios was combined with SLR of 25 cm, and increasing the abstraction rates from the Nile Delta aquifer by 25%, 50%, and 100%, respectively. New hydrological insights for the regionThe study findings indicated that the SLR and the GERD reservoir filling with increasing pumping rates, especially during the filling periods, would influence the groundwater resources in the Nile Delta. The GERD reservoir filling could alter the freshwater, in which the aquifer salinity increased by 4.47%, 11.48%, and 29.99% for the three scenarios, respectively. The methodology and findings presented in this study might be useful for investing and comparing the impact of SLR and upstream dam projects on the downstream water budget and salinity at other coastal regions.

Dam operation using satellite data and hydrological models: the case of Roseires dam and Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Blue Nile River

ABSTRACT The unexpected drop of the Blue Nile water in July 2020, attributed to the sudden closure of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) during the first filling in 2020, significantly interrupted the water supply for Khartoum, Sudan. This incident pursued using satellites and hydrological models to estimate inflows into Roseires dam. A hydrological model was developed to predict GERD inflows, while reservoir levels were extracted from Sentinel-1, -2 and Jason-3. A water balance model was developed to predict GERD releases and the dates of overtopping during subsequent fillings events. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of satellite data and models for transboundary reservoir management.

Inferring reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions using hydrological modeling and Earth observations: the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

Abstract. The filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) started in 2020, posing additional challenges for downstream water management in the Blue Nile River in the Republic of the Sudan, which is already struggling to cope with the effects of climate change. This is also the case for many transboundary rivers that are affected by a lack of cooperation and transparency during the filling and operation of new dams. Without information about water supply from neighboring countries, it is risky to manage downstream dams as usual, but operational information is needed to apply modifications. This study aims to develop a novel approach/framework that utilizes hydrological modeling in conjunction with remote-sensing data to retrieve reservoir filling strategies under limited-data-availability conditions. Firstly, five rainfall products (i.e., ARC2, CHIRPS, ERA5, GPCC, and PERSIANN-CDR; see Sect. 2.3 for more information) were evaluated against historical measured rainfall at 10 stations. Secondly, to account for input uncertainty, the three best-performing rainfall products were forced in the conceptual hydrological model HBV-light with potential evapotranspiration and temperature data from ERA5. The model was calibrated during the period from 2006 to 2019 and validated during the period from 1991 to 1996. Thirdly, the parameter sets that obtained very good performance (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NSE, greater than 0.75) were utilized to predict the inflow of GERD during the operation period (2020–2022). Then, from the water balance of GERD, the daily storage was estimated and compared with the storage derived from Landsat and Sentinel imageries to evaluate the performance of the selected rainfall products and the reliability of the framework. Finally, 3 years of GERD filling strategies was retrieved using the best-performing simulation of CHIRPS with an RMSE of 1.7 ×109 and 1.52 ×109m3 and an NSE of 0.77 and 0.86 when compared with Landsat- and Sentinel-derived reservoir storage, respectively. It was found that GERD stored 14 % of the monthly inflow of July 2020; 41 % of July 2021; and 37 % and 32 % of July and August 2022, respectively. Annually, GERD retained 5.2 % and 7.4 % of the annual inflow in the first two filling phases and between 12.9 % and 13.7 % in the third phase. The results also revealed that the retrieval of filling strategies is more influenced by input uncertainty than parameter uncertainty. The retrieved daily change in GERD storage with the measured outflow to the Republic of the Sudan allowed further interpretation of the downstream impacts of GERD. The findings of this study provide systematic steps to retrieve filling strategies, which can serve as a base for future development in the field, especially for data-scarce regions. Locally, the analysis contributes significantly to the future water management of the Roseires and Sennar dams in the Republic of the Sudan.

High-modernist intervention and the prolonged frontier conflict in Metekel, North-West Ethiopia: the case of the grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

ABSTRACTThis study explores the interface of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a high-modernist hydraulic scheme, with the protracted frontier conflict in Metekel Zone of Benishangul Gumuz Regional State. Without downplaying the national technocratic ambitions that it invokes, based on fieldwork conducted in 2022, the study witnessed as the dam’s presence in Metekel has escalated the perennial state-local skirmishes, rekindled inter-group hostilities, and ultimately trans-nationalized the frontier mayhem in the area. Such impacts of the dam were rooted in the state’s long-held frontier imagination and coercive relocation program through which hegemonic high-modernist narratives contested locals’ lived experiences. Differential local impacts of the dam, its role in mounting competing territorialities, and the concomitance of the trans-national feud with local discords were also equally influencing. However, the interface between the GERD and frontier struggles in Metekel was broadly shaped by the frontier’s history and national governance policies. In revealing so, the study provides insights that complement debates about frontier dynamics and struggles in Ethiopia and Africa, which tend to concentrate on tensions related to land transfer for private investors. Indeed, frontier struggles seem too complex: one must interrogate multiple actors, the complex history, and a broader range of issues with local, national, and regional dimensions.

Examining the Accuracy of Using a Single Short-Term Historical Flow Period to Assess the Nile’s Downstream Water Deficit from GERD Filling: A Technical Note

Increasing water and energy demands, hydroclimatic fluctuations, damming, and usage rights disputes present major challenges in managing transboundary rivers worldwide. Of particular interest is the Eastern Nile River Basin (ENRB), which is subject to broad debate over which modeling approach should be applied to resolve the disparities in transboundary water management among the river’s riparian nations, under increased upstream damming. Several studies have simulated the downstream High Aswan Dam (HAD) storage change during the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) filling under different hydrological conditions. However, their findings diverge regarding the impacts of GERD filling on HAD storage, especially when considering a specific, naturalized, historical 10-year period to represent the average flow condition used, as a benchmark for assessing potential downstream impacts. Our extended analysis of the Nile flow historical records demonstrates that considering a single historical 10-year period to simulate the downstream water budget, as performed in Wheeler et al. (Nat Commun 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x), widely communicated to policymakers as a robust proof that GERD filling will not generate a deficit at HAD under average flow conditions, is inconclusive as it strongly depend on the selection of the historical inflow period, due to the river high interannual flow variability. Our simulation results of 20 average/near average historical flow periods in Wheeler et al. (Nat Commun 11:5222, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19089-x)’s datasheet indicates that 60% of them generates a downstream water deficit ranging from 0.5 to 14.5 BCM under the same modeling conditions and filling policy. Therefore, considering the simulation results of multiple flow sequences is crucial for accurately reflecting the impact of the Nile’s high interannual flow variability on downstream water deficit assessments, thereby settling the disparities in transboundary water management forecasts for the impacts of GERD filling and operation.

Will the Nile River Turn into a Lake? The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance (GERD) Dam Case-Study

Abstract Today, many scholars agree that changes in water availability triggered by population growth, economic development and climate change impact will increase competition between water users, making conflict more likely, especially in those countries that lack the financial, technical and governance capacities to address water-related challenge and/or in river basin riparian states that share common water resources. As early as 2012, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), analysing the water issue at a regional and global level, concluded that, while water-related state-on-state conflict is unlikely to occur during the next ten years, the problem is projected to get worse in the near future. Starting from the historical reconstruction and the geopolitical repercussions of the water dispute in the Nile River Basin and focusing on the case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), this article aims to analyse the political, socio-economic and environmental changes that are affecting upstream countries and to detect how these new dynamics are challenging both the balance of power and the ongoing cooperation process in the region.

Aquaculture in Hydropower Reservoirs

There is an undoubtedly existing relationship between water, energy, and food and their interaction with the natural environment and mankind. Climate change is the talk of the day in global development discussions as it intensifies water shortages, energy, poverty, food shortages, and environmental degradation. Currently, most of the hydropower dams constructed in Africa are majorly built to store water for agricultural purposes, control flooding, and generate electricity. Notable projects include the seven forks hydropower stations located on the Tana River in Kenya; Aswan high dam in Egypt; Grand Renaissance dam in Ethiopia; Kariba dam in Zimbabwe and Akosombo in Ghana. Since agriculture is the major source of livelihood in Africa, the construction of dams is key for socio-economic development. Many countries in Africa have adopted crop farming and livestock farming but have neglected fish farming. Fish farming is mainly carried out in the natural water resources which highly makes it to be at risk within a climate change ecosystem. Climate change has led to the high and low fluctuation of water levels in the natural water bodies. This highly affects fish farming negatively and has led to the extinction of some fish species. To curb the problems faced by fish farming arising from climate change there is a need to create mitigation measures to ensure an adequate supply of fish in Africa. One of the mitigation measures is incorporating caged aquaculture in hydropower dams. Having caged fish farming will not only increase the fish supply but also increase income generation and food security across Africa. The paper followed a desktop research approach and provide detailed analysis of the relations between the availability of water, energy, and food in regard to fish production. A proposed conceptual framework for caged aquaculture systems was presented in this study as a means of promoting sustainability in food and agricultural production. The study further provided feasible climate-friendly food systems and blue justice approaches that can be adopted by the key stakeholders.

Policy conflict around the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

AbstractThe Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is the largest hydroelectric power project in Africa in terms of installed capacity. With global attention focused on the impact of this megadam, questions about how GERD‐related conflict developed are coming to the fore. This discussion paper describes policy conflict around this new hydroelectric dam over the past decade among three nations in the Nile River basin—Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Relying on the insights from the Policy Conflict Framework (a policy process theory that clarifies policy conflict characteristics and episodes) and the method of document analysis, this paper reviews the policy setting around the GERD conflict at the macro level. The paper concludes by proposing three recommendations to mitigate policy conflict: (1) address hydrologic information loopholes, (2) leverage a new mediator, and (3) recognize the multifaceted nature of policy conflict.

Hydro-Hegemony, Counter-Hegemony and Neoclassical Realism on the Nile Basin: An Analysis of Egypt’s Response to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)

The Framework of Hydro-Hegemony (FHH) has been applied several times to transboundary water disputes. Since it defines Egypt as a hegemon and Ethiopia as a counter-hegemon, many studies have focused on the hegemonic and counter-hegemonic activities in the Nile Basin. However, this article argues that Egypt has also deployed counter-hegemonic tactics to deal with the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) from Neoclassical Realist perspective. In this context, it questions why and how Egypt has deployed hegemonic and counter-hegemonic tactics to respond to the GERD through process-tracing and utilising primary and secondary sources such as official statements, books, articles and journals.

A Review: Keystone Environmental Problems are the Labyrinth Root causes that Resonate together with Socioeconomic Factors on Igniting Global Conflicts and Warfare


 When mitigating a man-made environmental problem, if it results in the permanent disappearance of one or more other environmental problems, then that mitigated problem can be considered a keystone environmental problem. Based on the aforesaid definition, eight environmental problems have been identified, such as population explosion, air pollution, deforestation, water pollution, scarcity and salination, overexploitation of natural resources, urbanisation (including industrialization, urban sprawl and settlements), intensive farming, and the global energy crisis. It has also been found that there is a significant relationship between these keystone environmental problems and global conflicts. For instance, according to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP), over the last six decades, globally, more than 40% of the internal conflicts have been caused by overexploitation of natural resources, which is a known keystone environmental issue. Thus, the importance of identifying the role of keystone environmental problems in igniting global environmental conflicts and warfare has been widely realised. This study was conducted using qualitative content analysis methodology reveals that labyrinth established by root keystone environmental problems resonates together with socio-economic factors conflagrate global environmental conflicts and warfare, such as Cauvery River conflict between Tamil Nadu and Kerala States in South India, conflict from trespassing fishermen poaching in waters of neighbouring country from both India and Sri Lanka, Environmental Conflict in Northeast India and Bangladesh due to flooding (natural disaster) caused by climate change led to migration, West bank water crisis between Israel and Palestine, Russia’s invasion into Ukraine in 2022, Alto Cenepa war, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) crisis between Ethiopia and Egypt, environmental conflicts in Philippines, conflict for land resources in Ethiopia, environmental conflict in Mexico, environmental conflict in Peru, Northeast India, Pakistan, Israel (Gaza), conflict of Mauritania and Senegal, Israel-Palestine (West bank), Somalia- Ethiopia, El Salvador-Honduras, Conflict between Kenyan tribes, dispute between North and South Sudan, and transboundary air pollution (causing acid rain) issue between the USA and Canada.
 Keywords: environment, environmental problems, environmental conflicts, keystone environmental problems, primary environmental problems, wars

Assessing the potential and challenges for trilateral trade integration among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia possess diverse natural resources and a substantial labor force that permit forming a successful trade integration. However, the recent dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project between Ethiopia and downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, has weakened the bilateral relations and disrupted trade flows among the three countries. This paper investigates the pattern of trilateral trade between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia during the period between 1995 and 2018. The study also examines the prospects and challenges for establishing a trilateral trade integration between the three countries. The study adopted the gravity model approach, along with the export diversification and trade complementarity indices, in order to scrutinize the pattern and structure of trade between the countries under study. The analysis indicated that Egypt is the most diversified economy with many crucial comparative advantages, which may grant it a leader position in the integration. Moreover, the paper revealed many challenges that may hinder the implementation of trilateral trade integration including, export concentration, poor infrastructure and disputes over water resources. Finally, the paper recommends that facilitating bilateral trade among the riparian countries of Eastern Nile Basin would mitigate the complex clashes over water rights.